Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 37 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 54-48 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.9%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 83.4%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 53.0%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Tavares
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
54
(102 meetings)
48
54
Tavares
Gaustad
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
27
5
Tavares
Gaustad
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
5
32
Tavares
Gaustad
37 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
16
17
Tavares
Gaustad
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
58.2% (4,334)
-4.2%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
65.4% (188)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
54.8% (1,290)
-4.2%
On power play, Gaustad has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gaustad
Home
56.1% (10,503)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Tavares
Gaustad
P1
55.0%
58.2%
P2
54.1%
56.4%
P3
54.1%
58.3%
OT
55.9%
66.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2015 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 3 | 05:34 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 3 | 02:51 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 2 | 07:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 2 | 04:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 1 | 14:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 18:50 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 11:24 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 12, 2013 | 2 | 14:32 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |