Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Kesler 55.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 52-36 in 88 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 72.8%
Defensive zone
Kesler 64.9%
Neutral zone
Kesler 51.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Tavares
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
52
(88 meetings)
36
52
Tavares
Kesler
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
22
10
Tavares
Kesler
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
5
25
Tavares
Kesler
30 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
9
17
Tavares
Kesler
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
56.4% (8,095)
-2.4%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
60.7% (1,437)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
50.5% (1,908)
+0.1%
On power play, Kesler has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kesler
Home
56.1% (10,503)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Tavares
Kesler
P1
55.0%
56.5%
P2
54.1%
55.9%
P3
54.1%
56.1%
OT
55.9%
46.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2019 | 3 | 08:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2019 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 4, 2019 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 3 | 16:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 3 | 00:32 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 2 | 18:35 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 2 | 15:11 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 1 | 16:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 1 | 08:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 1 | 05:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2016 | OT | 04:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2016 | OT | 03:20 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 22, 2016 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 22, 2016 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 22, 2016 | 3 | 09:36 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 22, 2016 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |