Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Matthias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Matthias 46.6% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 17-9 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 97.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 77.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 93.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 89.0%
89.0%
11.0%
Tavares
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
9
(26 meetings)
17
9
Tavares
Matthias
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
2
Tavares
Matthias
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthias
4
5
Tavares
Matthias
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
2
Tavares
Matthias
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
46.4% (1,716)
+7.6%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
56.3% (103)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
41.7% (175)
+8.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Matthias is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,275).
Home / Away
Tavares
Matthias
Home
56.1% (10,503)
46.9% (933)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
45.9% (1,069)
By Period
Tavares
Matthias
P1
55.0%
47.8%
P2
54.1%
49.4%
P3
54.1%
41.6%
OT
55.9%
45.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2015 | 3 | 07:00 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 3 | 19:32 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 3 | 14:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 04:22 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 10:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 01:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 01:47 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 00:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Mar 16, 2013 | 2 | 16:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 16, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Mar 16, 2013 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Mar 16, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2012 | 1 | 02:30 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |