Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Smith 48.7% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 70.7%
Defensive zone
Smith 82.9%
Neutral zone
Smith 58.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Tavares
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Tavares
Smith
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
1
Tavares
Smith
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
2
Tavares
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
0
5
Tavares
Smith
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
49.0% (769)
+5.0%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
63.6% (22)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
42.4% (118)
+8.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Smith is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Tavares
Smith
Home
56.1% (10,503)
52.4% (490)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
44.0% (420)
By Period
Tavares
Smith
P1
55.0%
46.9%
P2
54.1%
51.2%
P3
54.1%
47.7%
OT
55.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 2 | 11:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 09:30 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |