Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.2%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 52.1% vs Smith 51.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 82.7%
Defensive zone
Smith 76.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Tavares
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tavares
Smith
Last 5: Tavares 4-1 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Smith
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Tavares
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (1,121)
53.7% (449)
-1.3%
Power Play
51.3% (304)
80.0% (10)
-28.7%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
43.1% (102)
+15.7%
On power play, Smith has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Tavares is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (911).
Tavares shoots left. Smith is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Tavares
Smith
Home
56.5% (731)
55.0% (280)
Away
47.8% (711)
49.5% (281)
By Period
Tavares
Smith
P1
56.1%
52.3%
P2
50.3%
52.1%
P3
50.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
51.5%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.2%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 2 | 11:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |