Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 52.1% vs Rask 50.9% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 69.0%
Defensive zone
Rask 67.6%
Neutral zone
Rask 52.6%
Result
Victor Rask favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Tavares
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Tavares
Rask
Last 6: Tavares 5-1 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Rask
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Rask
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Rask
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (1,121)
51.4% (863)
+1.0%
Power Play
51.3% (304)
55.9% (34)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
23.8% (21)
+35.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Tavares is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (911).
Tavares shoots left. Rask is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (578).
Home / Away
Tavares
Rask
Home
56.5% (731)
53.2% (494)
Away
47.8% (711)
48.3% (424)
By Period
Tavares
Rask
P1
56.1%
49.2%
P2
50.3%
48.9%
P3
50.5%
54.4%
OT
50.0%
63.2%
Final 5 min
51.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.2%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 16:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 00:34 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 1 | 17:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 1 | 14:13 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |