Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 38 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Smith 50.6% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 56-47 in 103 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 83.2%
Defensive zone
Smith 59.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 63.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Tavares
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
56
-
47
(103 meetings)
56
47
Tavares
Smith
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
29
9
Tavares
Smith
38 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
9
26
Tavares
Smith
35 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
18
12
Tavares
Smith
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
51.6% (5,265)
+2.4%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
51.2% (342)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
45.3% (985)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Smith is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (4,205).
Home / Away
Tavares
Smith
Home
56.1% (10,503)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Tavares
Smith
P1
55.0%
49.9%
P2
54.1%
50.0%
P3
54.1%
51.9%
OT
55.9%
51.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 12:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 3 | 12:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 3 | 03:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 11:19 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 05:20 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 2 | 16:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 18:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 02:18 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 00:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |