Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 52.1% vs Smith 46.2% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 82.6%
Defensive zone
Smith 63.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 71.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 71.1%
71.1%
28.9%
Tavares
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tavares
Smith
Last 5: Tavares 3-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Smith
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Tavares
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (1,121)
44.7% (190)
+7.7%
Power Play
51.3% (304)
40.0% (10)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
45.2% (31)
+13.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Tavares is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (911).
Tavares shoots left. Smith is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Tavares
Smith
Home
56.5% (731)
46.8% (111)
Away
47.8% (711)
42.5% (120)
By Period
Tavares
Smith
P1
56.1%
44.6%
P2
50.3%
43.6%
P3
50.5%
46.2%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.2%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2014 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 2 | 10:50 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 2 | 00:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |