Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDonald wins 43.6% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 48.7% vs Toews 59.0% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDonald 81.9%
Defensive zone
McDonald 64.3%
Neutral zone
McDonald 78.1%
Result
Andy McDonald favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
McDonald
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
McDonald
Toews
Last 6: McDonald 1-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDonald
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
3
McDonald
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
McDonald
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (103)
57.3% (736)
-12.6%
Power Play
51.8% (85)
71.4% (133)
-19.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
66.1% (62)
-16.1%
On power play, Toews has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. McDonald is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (133).
McDonald shoots left. Toews is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
McDonald
Toews
Home
43.8% (105)
61.0% (479)
Away
52.7% (93)
58.8% (454)
By Period
McDonald
Toews
P1
47.4%
61.3%
P2
48.5%
57.9%
P3
44.9%
59.3%
OT
83.3%
73.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
60.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
48.0%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2013 | 3 | 06:34 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 14, 2013 | 3 | 06:32 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 4, 2013 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |