Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Penner wins 41.1% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 44.6% vs Toews 56.3% (-13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Penner 74.9%
Defensive zone
Penner 72.2%
Neutral zone
Penner 73.1%
Result
Dustin Penner favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Penner
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Penner
Toews
Last 7: Penner 2-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Penner
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Penner
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Penner
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (151)
55.6% (1,125)
-14.5%
Power Play
50.0% (92)
59.3% (312)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (59)
57.4% (204)
-21.8%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Penner is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (197).
Penner shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,194).
Home / Away
Penner
Toews
Home
47.5% (158)
59.8% (858)
Away
37.8% (148)
53.3% (795)
By Period
Penner
Toews
P1
38.1%
58.7%
P2
36.2%
55.1%
P3
54.7%
56.5%
OT
27.3%
54.8%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
42.8%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2011 | 1 | 10:32 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 1 | 03:58 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 3 | 11:28 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 3 | 01:23 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 29, 2010 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |