Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Komarov on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Komarov shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 54.6% vs Komarov 46.7% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 67.9%
Defensive zone
Komarov 78.6%
Neutral zone
Komarov 59.5%
Result
Leo Komarov favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Toews
Komarov
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Toews
Komarov
Last 5: Toews 2-3 Komarov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Komarov
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Komarov
0
3
Toews
Komarov
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Komarov
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (1,153)
42.9% (56)
+11.9%
Power Play
58.8% (233)
42.9% (7)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (166)
46.0% (139)
+4.0%
On power play, Toews has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Komarov shoots left. Toews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Toews shoots left. Komarov is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (123).
Home / Away
Toews
Komarov
Home
58.7% (784)
49.5% (103)
Away
51.0% (768)
40.4% (99)
By Period
Toews
Komarov
P1
54.0%
49.1%
P2
57.4%
39.0%
P3
52.6%
49.3%
OT
64.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
54.9%
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2016 | OT | 04:20 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |
| Oct 22, 2016 | OT | 00:32 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 1 | 15:42 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |