Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Lucic shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.8% vs Lucic 46.6% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 59.5%
Defensive zone
Toews 91.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 85.8%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 89.9%
89.9%
10.1%
Toews
Lucic
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Toews
Lucic
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
Lucic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lucic
0
1
Toews
Lucic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Lucic
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (12,906)
44.4% (401)
+12.7%
Power Play
63.2% (3,220)
49.5% (198)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,808)
33.3% (3)
+20.3%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lucic shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,532).
Toews shoots left. Lucic is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (337).
Home / Away
Toews
Lucic
Home
59.6% (9,086)
48.3% (317)
Away
56.1% (8,879)
43.5% (285)
By Period
Toews
Lucic
P1
58.7%
41.3%
P2
57.7%
47.9%
P3
57.2%
50.3%
OT
58.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
58.1%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.9%
Lucic
46.0%▬
45.5%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Milan Lucic |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 01:32 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 27, 2014 | 1 | 18:53 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |