Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 95.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 68.0%
Neutral zone
Toews 90.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Toews
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Toews
Bjugstad
Last 5: Toews 4-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
48.9% (280)
+13.6%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
50.0% (6)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
47.2% (36)
-0.3%
On even strength, Toews has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Toews shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Toews
Bjugstad
Home
60.9% (435)
48.4% (190)
Away
62.0% (434)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Toews
Bjugstad
P1
59.8%
41.7%
P2
65.7%
56.6%
P3
58.8%
48.7%
OT
80.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 02:27 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:31 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |