Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.9% vs 57.7%). Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 35 meetings). Toews wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.8% vs Gaustad 57.6% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 47-42 in 89 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 83.8%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 82.1%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 58.3%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Toews
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
47
(89 meetings)
42
47
Toews
Gaustad
Last 10: Toews 3-7 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
28
6
Toews
Gaustad
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
5
30
Toews
Gaustad
35 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
9
11
Toews
Gaustad
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (12,906)
58.2% (4,334)
-1.1%
Power Play
63.2% (3,220)
65.4% (188)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,808)
54.8% (1,290)
-1.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,532).
Toews shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Toews
Gaustad
Home
59.6% (9,086)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
56.1% (8,879)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Toews
Gaustad
P1
58.7%
58.2%
P2
57.7%
56.4%
P3
57.2%
58.3%
OT
58.8%
66.0%
Final 5 min
58.1%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.9%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2016 | 3 | 15:23 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 25, 2016 | 1 | 10:55 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 19, 2016 | 3 | 17:17 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 3 | 17:03 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 3 | 00:23 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 1 | 03:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 2 | 16:47 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 19:13 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |