Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Umberger shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.6% vs Umberger 49.3% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 80.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 94.9%
Neutral zone
Toews 91.5%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 89.2%
89.2%
10.8%
Toews
Umberger
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Toews
Umberger
Last 7: Toews 6-1 Umberger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Umberger
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Umberger
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Umberger
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Umberger
Edge
Even Strength
58.5% (775)
50.6% (164)
+7.9%
Power Play
64.9% (225)
49.1% (114)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
55.8% (120)
40.0% (25)
+15.8%
On power play, Toews has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Umberger shoots left. Toews is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Toews shoots left. Umberger is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Toews
Umberger
Home
63.0% (567)
48.8% (166)
Away
55.8% (570)
49.3% (140)
By Period
Toews
Umberger
P1
59.6%
43.7%
P2
58.2%
52.6%
P3
60.7%
51.4%
OT
52.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
59.0%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.4%
Umberger
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2012 | 2 | 10:30 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 16:48 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 12:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 05:13 | Neutral | R.J. Umberger |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 19:43 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 1 | 06:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |