Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (66% H2H, 83 meetings). Toews wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Kesler 55.9% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 110-102 in 212 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 75.2%
Defensive zone
Kesler 56.0%
Neutral zone
Toews 56.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Toews
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
110
-
102
(212 meetings)
110
102
Toews
Kesler
Last 10: Toews 5-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
55
28
Toews
Kesler
83 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
26
44
Toews
Kesler
70 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
29
30
Toews
Kesler
59 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
56.4% (8,095)
+0.8%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
60.7% (1,437)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
50.5% (1,908)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,486).
Toews shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Toews
Kesler
Home
59.7% (9,192)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Toews
Kesler
P1
58.6%
56.5%
P2
57.8%
55.9%
P3
57.3%
56.1%
OT
58.9%
46.0%
Final 5 min
58.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 18:16 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 17:18 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 15:06 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 12:23 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 05:35 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 2 | 13:36 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 2 | 08:02 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 1 | 14:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 3 | 19:52 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 3 | 19:20 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 3 | 17:52 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 3 | 05:30 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |