Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Toews wins 58.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 59.0% vs Kesler 55.6% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 72.3%
Defensive zone
Toews 54.2%
Neutral zone
Toews 59.4%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Toews
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
9
(20 meetings)
11
9
Toews
Kesler
Last 10: Toews 4-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
6
2
Toews
Kesler
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
5
Toews
Kesler
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Toews
Kesler
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
57.3% (736)
57.6% (231)
-0.3%
Power Play
71.4% (133)
65.5% (29)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
66.1% (62)
51.2% (43)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Toews is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Toews shoots left. Kesler is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Toews
Kesler
Home
61.0% (479)
58.8% (114)
Away
58.8% (454)
56.6% (189)
By Period
Toews
Kesler
P1
61.3%
60.8%
P2
57.9%
60.0%
P3
59.3%
52.5%
OT
73.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
60.1%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.9%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2013 | 3 | 17:31 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 1 | 14:38 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 19, 2013 | OT | 03:48 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 19, 2013 | OT | 00:51 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 3 | 19:34 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 3 | 14:15 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 2 | 03:15 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 2 | 00:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |