Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Toews wins 56.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 54.6% vs Kesler 57.0% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 72.1%
Defensive zone
Kesler 55.0%
Neutral zone
Toews 54.8%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Toews
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Toews
Kesler
Last 10: Toews 2-8 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
5
Toews
Kesler
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
6
Toews
Kesler
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (1,153)
57.6% (1,225)
-2.8%
Power Play
58.8% (233)
63.5% (263)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (166)
51.5% (305)
-1.5%
On power play, Kesler has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Toews is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (564).
Toews shoots left. Kesler is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,218).
Home / Away
Toews
Kesler
Home
58.7% (784)
59.1% (881)
Away
51.0% (768)
55.7% (912)
By Period
Toews
Kesler
P1
54.0%
56.6%
P2
57.4%
58.2%
P3
52.6%
57.5%
OT
64.7%
53.6%
Final 5 min
55.9%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
54.9%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 17:42 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 13:30 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 09:51 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 09:13 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 2 | 18:57 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 2 | 11:30 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 14:35 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 06:10 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |