Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Matthias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.2% vs Matthias 46.7% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 65.4%
Defensive zone
Matthias 82.8%
Neutral zone
Matthias 58.2%
Result
Shawn Matthias favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Toews
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Toews
Matthias
Last 7: Toews 3-4 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Matthias
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthias
0
2
Toews
Matthias
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Matthias
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (1,229)
47.2% (142)
+7.7%
Power Play
62.7% (354)
100.0% (2)
-37.3%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (92)
34.9% (43)
+19.4%
On power play, Matthias has a +37.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Toews is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,050).
Toews shoots left. Matthias is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Toews
Matthias
Home
57.6% (838)
45.6% (57)
Away
55.4% (837)
44.6% (130)
By Period
Toews
Matthias
P1
58.0%
54.3%
P2
54.4%
40.0%
P3
56.7%
40.0%
OT
64.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.5%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2015 | 3 | 02:31 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 11, 2015 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 11, 2015 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 11, 2015 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 11, 2015 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 11, 2015 | 1 | 12:15 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 11, 2015 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |