Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 19 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 26-14 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 83.7%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 55.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 50.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Staal
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
26
(40 meetings)
14
26
Staal
Gaustad
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
7
6
Staal
Gaustad
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
17
Staal
Gaustad
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
5
3
Staal
Gaustad
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
58.2% (4,334)
-2.3%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
65.4% (188)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
54.8% (1,290)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Staal
Gaustad
Home
56.4% (9,663)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Staal
Gaustad
P1
55.2%
58.2%
P2
55.9%
56.4%
P3
54.9%
58.3%
OT
56.2%
66.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 12:27 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 17:27 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 15:38 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 3 | 16:11 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 3 | 15:03 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 3 | 10:59 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 2 | 16:05 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 2 | 11:11 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 2 | 05:59 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 15:23 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 02:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 3 | 06:46 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 2 | 19:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 2 | 18:02 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |