Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 56.0%). Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Kesler 55.9% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 14-13 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 51.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 52.0%
Neutral zone
Kesler 50.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Staal
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
13
(27 meetings)
14
13
Staal
Kesler
Last 10: Staal 7-3 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
6
4
Staal
Kesler
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
4
Staal
Kesler
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Staal
Kesler
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
56.4% (8,095)
-0.5%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
60.7% (1,437)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
50.5% (1,908)
-2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Staal
Kesler
Home
56.4% (9,663)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Staal
Kesler
P1
55.2%
56.5%
P2
55.9%
55.9%
P3
54.9%
56.1%
OT
56.2%
46.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2018 | 1 | 18:57 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2018 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 13:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 13:39 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 05:04 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2015 | 3 | 14:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2015 | 3 | 12:22 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 11, 2015 | 2 | 11:36 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2015 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 11, 2015 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 18:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 15:29 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |