Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 63.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 58.4% vs Kesler 57.0% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 65.1%
Defensive zone
Kesler 53.7%
Neutral zone
Kesler 50.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Staal
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Staal
Kesler
Last 8: Staal 5-3 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
2
Staal
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (888)
57.6% (1,225)
+1.5%
Power Play
66.9% (121)
63.5% (263)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (156)
51.5% (305)
+1.1%
On power play, Staal has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Staal is 63.6% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Kesler is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,218).
Home / Away
Staal
Kesler
Home
61.2% (600)
59.1% (881)
Away
56.9% (566)
55.7% (912)
By Period
Staal
Kesler
P1
57.5%
56.6%
P2
60.1%
58.2%
P3
59.1%
57.5%
OT
70.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
59.5%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
59.1%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 13:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 13:39 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 05:04 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |