Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lehtera on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Lehtera shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Lehtera 51.1% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lehtera 61.2%
Defensive zone
Lehtera 57.8%
Neutral zone
Lehtera 60.8%
Result
Jori Lehtera favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Spezza
Lehtera
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Spezza
Lehtera
Last 9: Spezza 3-6 Lehtera
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lehtera
1
4
Spezza
Lehtera
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Lehtera
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Lehtera
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Lehtera
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (998)
50.6% (884)
+2.4%
Power Play
58.5% (248)
53.5% (155)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
59.1% (22)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Lehtera has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lehtera shoots left. Spezza is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (919).
Spezza shoots right. Lehtera is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Spezza
Lehtera
Home
56.4% (626)
55.6% (549)
Away
51.7% (636)
46.5% (512)
By Period
Spezza
Lehtera
P1
56.9%
53.8%
P2
51.9%
48.9%
P3
53.9%
50.8%
OT
46.2%
56.5%
Final 5 min
54.7%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Lehtera
42.0%▼
56.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 1 | 11:25 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 19:48 | Defensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 10:59 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 2 | 16:17 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |