Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lehtera 50.7% vs Duchene 54.1% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 25-17 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Lehtera 71.2%
Defensive zone
Lehtera 70.5%
Neutral zone
Lehtera 69.4%
Result
Jori Lehtera favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Lehtera
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
25
(42 meetings)
17
25
Lehtera
Duchene
Last 10: Lehtera 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lehtera
6
5
Lehtera
Duchene
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
9
Lehtera
Duchene
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
11
Lehtera
Duchene
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lehtera
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (2,714)
54.0% (10,249)
-3.6%
Power Play
55.8% (339)
56.9% (1,620)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (104)
49.3% (467)
-8.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lehtera is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,033).
Lehtera shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (7,938).
Home / Away
Lehtera
Duchene
Home
53.7% (1,668)
55.6% (6,270)
Away
47.4% (1,489)
52.7% (6,090)
By Period
Lehtera
Duchene
P1
53.2%
54.5%
P2
50.6%
54.5%
P3
48.1%
53.4%
OT
54.3%
55.9%
Final 5 min
48.9%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lehtera
42.0%▼
56.5%
50.7%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 16:27 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 10:21 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 10:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 10:18 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 02:15 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 2 | 01:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 3 | 04:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 2 | 00:51 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 2 | 00:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 1 | 03:54 | Defensive | Jori Lehtera |