Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lehtera 50.0% vs Duchene 57.0% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lehtera 67.5%
Defensive zone
Lehtera 66.4%
Neutral zone
Lehtera 67.6%
Result
Jori Lehtera favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Lehtera
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Lehtera
Duchene
Last 7: Lehtera 2-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Lehtera
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Lehtera
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Lehtera
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lehtera
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (843)
56.5% (527)
-7.6%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
61.6% (185)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (30)
59.3% (27)
-22.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lehtera is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Lehtera shoots left. Duchene is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Lehtera
Duchene
Home
51.7% (520)
57.6% (403)
Away
48.1% (449)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Lehtera
Duchene
P1
52.8%
61.4%
P2
54.0%
58.5%
P3
43.0%
54.9%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.9%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lehtera
42.0%▼
56.5%
50.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2016 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 3 | 04:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 2 | 00:51 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 2 | 00:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 1 | 03:54 | Defensive | Jori Lehtera |