Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Lehtera wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lehtera 52.4% vs Duchene 54.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 62.4%
Defensive zone
Lehtera 80.9%
Neutral zone
Lehtera 56.8%
Result
Jori Lehtera favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Lehtera
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Lehtera
Duchene
Last 8: Lehtera 3-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Lehtera
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lehtera
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
3
Lehtera
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lehtera
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (117)
55.4% (1,013)
-0.7%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
56.3% (192)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (27)
41.2% (17)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Lehtera has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lehtera is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (100).
Lehtera shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Home / Away
Lehtera
Duchene
Home
63.6% (66)
56.2% (642)
Away
46.3% (80)
54.3% (580)
By Period
Lehtera
Duchene
P1
48.1%
56.2%
P2
56.5%
56.5%
P3
58.3%
52.9%
Final 5 min
58.1%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lehtera
42.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 16:27 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 3 | 10:21 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Jori Lehtera |