Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Bailey 45.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 17-5 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 66.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 91.8%
Neutral zone
Kelly 87.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Kelly
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
5
(22 meetings)
17
5
Kelly
Bailey
Last 10: Kelly 8-2 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
8
0
Kelly
Bailey
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Bailey
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
7
4
Kelly
Bailey
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
45.8% (1,991)
+5.3%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
48.1% (295)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
39.9% (281)
+4.8%
On power play, Kelly has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Home / Away
Kelly
Bailey
Home
52.6% (1,965)
46.6% (1,353)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
44.0% (1,232)
By Period
Kelly
Bailey
P1
49.2%
46.5%
P2
49.1%
44.8%
P3
51.9%
44.4%
OT
53.5%
51.1%
Final 5 min
50.3%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 15:00 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 19:34 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 13:09 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 10:02 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 2 | 02:23 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 2 | 02:16 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 7, 2011 | 3 | 17:12 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 6, 2011 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 6, 2011 | 3 | 03:52 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 6, 2011 | 3 | 00:12 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 2 | 03:54 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 1 | 17:55 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 1 | 01:35 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 2 | 01:27 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |