Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Ribeiro shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Ribeiro 43.2% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ribeiro 53.8%
Defensive zone
Bailey 81.6%
Neutral zone
Bailey 64.7%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Bailey
Ribeiro
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Bailey
Ribeiro
Last 7: Bailey 5-2 Ribeiro
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bailey
Ribeiro
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
3
0
Bailey
Ribeiro
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Ribeiro
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
42.9% (4,887)
+2.9%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
45.6% (930)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
33.3% (147)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ribeiro shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. Ribeiro is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,885).
Home / Away
Bailey
Ribeiro
Home
46.6% (1,353)
44.1% (3,144)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
41.9% (2,837)
By Period
Bailey
Ribeiro
P1
46.5%
42.6%
P2
44.8%
44.3%
P3
44.4%
41.8%
OT
51.1%
49.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Ribeiro
34.0%▼
36.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 18:38 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 13:22 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |