Scouting Report
Mikhail Grabovski holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Grabovski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.2% vs Grabovski 48.5% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Grabovski 76.5%
Defensive zone
Grabovski 59.9%
Neutral zone
Grabovski 66.3%
Result
Mikhail Grabovski favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
Bailey
Grabovski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Bailey
Grabovski
Last 8: Bailey 6-2 Grabovski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
3
0
Bailey
Grabovski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
0
Bailey
Grabovski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Grabovski
1
2
Bailey
Grabovski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Grabovski
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (441)
47.8% (992)
-3.6%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
51.4% (222)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (84)
42.9% (77)
-1.2%
On even strength, Grabovski has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Grabovski shoots left. Bailey is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Bailey shoots left. Grabovski is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (864).
Home / Away
Bailey
Grabovski
Home
43.1% (295)
50.0% (658)
Away
45.6% (320)
46.9% (668)
By Period
Bailey
Grabovski
P1
46.5%
49.3%
P2
45.7%
47.2%
P3
41.3%
48.4%
OT
38.5%
54.5%
Final 5 min
44.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
44.4%
Grabovski
42.0%▼
44.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2011 | OT | 02:57 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 3 | 04:08 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 2 | 18:44 | Neutral | Mikhail Grabovski |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 2 | 09:42 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 1 | 16:41 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 1 | 08:16 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 1 | 08:04 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 22, 2011 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Mikhail Grabovski |