Scouting Report
Nick Spaling holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Spaling 49.9% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spaling 53.2%
Defensive zone
Spaling 76.5%
Neutral zone
Spaling 69.6%
Result
Nick Spaling favored at 70.4%
29.6%
70.4%
Bailey
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bailey
Spaling
Last 5: Bailey 3-2 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
0
1
Bailey
Spaling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
1
Bailey
Spaling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
0
Bailey
Spaling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
50.5% (2,263)
-4.7%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
43.4% (53)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
48.0% (498)
-8.1%
On penalty kill, Spaling has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. Spaling is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,835).
Home / Away
Bailey
Spaling
Home
46.6% (1,353)
51.9% (1,437)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
47.8% (1,378)
By Period
Bailey
Spaling
P1
46.5%
49.8%
P2
44.8%
48.3%
P3
44.4%
52.0%
OT
51.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2012 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 1 | 01:19 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |