Scouting Report
Nick Spaling holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 44.6% vs Spaling 50.1% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spaling 68.6%
Defensive zone
Spaling 64.2%
Neutral zone
Spaling 65.5%
Result
Nick Spaling favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Bailey
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bailey
Spaling
Last 5: Bailey 3-2 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
0
1
Bailey
Spaling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
1
Bailey
Spaling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
0
Bailey
Spaling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (579)
49.7% (756)
-5.5%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
35.3% (17)
+17.2%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (108)
55.0% (120)
-15.2%
On power play, Bailey has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Bailey is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Bailey shoots left. Spaling is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Home / Away
Bailey
Spaling
Home
45.9% (375)
52.1% (476)
Away
41.8% (361)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Bailey
Spaling
P1
47.3%
50.4%
P2
40.4%
51.3%
P3
43.3%
48.5%
OT
63.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
44.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
43.9%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2012 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 1 | 01:19 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |