Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Bailey leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Bailey 61.1%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 85.5%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 79.2%
20.8%
79.2%
Bailey
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Bailey
Gaustad
Last 10: Bailey 7-3 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
0
Bailey
Gaustad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bailey
Gaustad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
3
2
Bailey
Gaustad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
58.2% (4,334)
-12.4%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
65.4% (188)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
54.8% (1,290)
-14.9%
On power play, Gaustad has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Bailey
Gaustad
Home
46.6% (1,353)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Bailey
Gaustad
P1
46.5%
58.2%
P2
44.8%
56.4%
P3
44.4%
58.3%
OT
51.1%
66.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2012 | 1 | 17:54 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 3 | 11:17 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 3 | 12:36 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |