Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Bailey wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 44.6% vs Gaustad 56.7% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaustad 70.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 93.9%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 92.6%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 87.9%
12.1%
87.9%
Bailey
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Bailey
Gaustad
Last 9: Bailey 7-2 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
0
Bailey
Gaustad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
0
Bailey
Gaustad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
3
2
Bailey
Gaustad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (579)
57.8% (854)
-13.6%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
56.0% (25)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (108)
55.1% (263)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Bailey is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Bailey shoots left. Gaustad is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (734).
Home / Away
Bailey
Gaustad
Home
45.9% (375)
61.3% (633)
Away
41.8% (361)
52.4% (517)
By Period
Bailey
Gaustad
P1
47.3%
57.9%
P2
40.4%
55.3%
P3
43.3%
58.3%
OT
63.6%
64.3%
Final 5 min
44.6%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
43.9%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2012 | 1 | 17:54 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 3 | 11:17 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |