Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Jooris wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jooris 48.0% vs Hertl 54.2% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jooris 56.1%
Defensive zone
Jooris 80.3%
Neutral zone
Jooris 69.2%
Result
Josh Jooris favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Jooris
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Jooris
Hertl
Last 7: Jooris 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Jooris
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jooris
1
0
Jooris
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Jooris
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jooris
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (1,221)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.2%
Power Play
61.0% (41)
59.3% (1,975)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
39.4% (175)
46.3% (806)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jooris is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (979).
Jooris shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Jooris
Hertl
Home
49.0% (786)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
46.4% (651)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Jooris
Hertl
P1
47.5%
53.6%
P2
44.3%
54.1%
P3
51.3%
55.3%
OT
66.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
48.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jooris
48.0%▲
43.5%
47.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 13:43 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 3 | 12:37 | Neutral | Josh Jooris |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Josh Jooris |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 12:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 12:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |