Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 70.3%
Defensive zone
Norris 72.9%
Neutral zone
Norris 72.7%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Norris
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Norris
O'Reilly
Last 7: Norris 1-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Norris
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Norris
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
55.4% (826)
-5.4%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
57.9% (221)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
50.4% (129)
-7.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Norris is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Norris shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Norris
O'Reilly
Home
47.2% (193)
55.8% (579)
Away
51.6% (246)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Norris
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
57.7%
P2
48.2%
54.8%
P3
47.9%
54.3%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 12:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Josh Norris |