Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.4% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 71.5%
Defensive zone
Norris 69.5%
Neutral zone
Norris 70.8%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Norris
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Norris
O'Reilly
Last 7: Norris 1-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Norris
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Norris
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (346)
55.3% (815)
-5.6%
Power Play
47.9% (73)
58.0% (219)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
49.2% (124)
-6.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Norris is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (281).
Norris shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Home / Away
Norris
O'Reilly
Home
47.2% (193)
55.8% (579)
Away
51.1% (233)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Norris
O'Reilly
P1
53.5%
57.5%
P2
47.5%
54.7%
P3
47.4%
54.1%
Final 5 min
44.3%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
48.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 12:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Josh Norris |