Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Jokinen on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jokinen 51.1% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 91.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 87.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 80.0%
20.0%
80.0%
Jokinen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Jokinen
O'Reilly
Last 5: Jokinen 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jokinen
2
0
Jokinen
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jokinen
2
1
Jokinen
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jokinen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
40.3% (72)
56.9% (1,203)
-16.6%
Power Play
56.8% (132)
60.2% (329)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
53.4% (58)
50.4% (280)
+3.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jokinen is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (162).
Jokinen shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Jokinen
O'Reilly
Home
58.7% (150)
58.6% (879)
Away
42.0% (112)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Jokinen
O'Reilly
P1
53.0%
55.6%
P2
46.2%
57.9%
P3
50.6%
55.7%
OT
77.8%
62.5%
Final 5 min
63.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jokinen
44.0%▼
56.0%
51.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2015 | 3 | 02:18 | Defensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Nov 12, 2015 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Nov 12, 2015 | 1 | 11:11 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 3 | 09:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 1 | 19:40 | Defensive | Jussi Jokinen |