Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Svechkov wins 37.8% vs left-shot opponents — Dowling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 39.8% vs Dowling 48.7% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Svechkov 72.7%
Defensive zone
Svechkov 50.5%
Neutral zone
Svechkov 63.8%
Result
Fedor Svechkov favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Svechkov
Dowling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Svechkov
Dowling
Last 6: Svechkov 2-4 Dowling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
0
1
Svechkov
Dowling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Svechkov
Dowling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
1
2
Svechkov
Dowling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Dowling
Edge
Even Strength
36.8% (318)
48.7% (318)
-11.9%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
20.0% (5)
+22.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
50.0% (4)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Dowling has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowling shoots left. Svechkov is 37.8% vs left-shot opponents (222).
Svechkov shoots left. Dowling is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Dowling
Home
37.0% (181)
49.0% (145)
Away
36.4% (154)
47.8% (182)
By Period
Svechkov
Dowling
P1
35.1%
48.1%
P2
44.4%
49.1%
P3
30.8%
47.8%
Final 5 min
35.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
34.0%▼
41.5%
36.7%
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:09 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:45 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 18:49 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 18:36 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 17:25 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 05:48 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |