Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Sourdif 46.1% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 72.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 94.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 93.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 86.6%
86.6%
13.4%
Evans
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Evans
Sourdif
Last 6: Evans 5-1 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Sourdif
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Sourdif
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
44.9% (548)
+11.3%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
50.0% (24)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
61.5% (13)
-6.1%
On power play, Evans has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Sourdif is 42.8% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Home / Away
Evans
Sourdif
Home
55.3% (374)
44.1% (313)
Away
57.1% (317)
47.1% (272)
By Period
Evans
Sourdif
P1
58.5%
43.6%
P2
55.7%
43.6%
P3
53.9%
49.4%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Sourdif
38.0%▼
41.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |