Scouting Report
Oliver Moore holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Moore on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Moore shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.9% vs Moore 48.9% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Moore 67.4%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 68.0%
Neutral zone
Moore 62.4%
Result
Oliver Moore favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Sourdif
Moore
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Sourdif
Moore
Last 5: Sourdif 3-2 Moore
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Moore
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Moore
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Moore
1
2
Sourdif
Moore
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Moore
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (556)
50.3% (187)
-5.7%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
33.3% (15)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
0.0% (3)
+61.5%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +61.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Moore shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Sourdif shoots right. Moore is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Moore
Home
43.6% (321)
52.3% (132)
Away
47.1% (272)
41.1% (73)
By Period
Sourdif
Moore
P1
43.1%
44.3%
P2
43.9%
54.2%
P3
48.6%
46.5%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
44.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Moore
38.0%▼
48.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 12:38 | Neutral | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 02:08 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:17 | Neutral | Oliver Moore |