Scouting Report
Keegan Kolesar holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gregor on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kolesar wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gregor shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 47.7% vs Gregor 41.4% (+16.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 50.3%
Defensive zone
Kolesar 54.3%
Neutral zone
Gregor 58.5%
Result
Noah Gregor favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Kolesar
Gregor
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kolesar
Gregor
Last 5: Kolesar 2-3 Gregor
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gregor
1
2
Kolesar
Gregor
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
1
0
Kolesar
Gregor
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gregor
0
1
Kolesar
Gregor
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Gregor
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (134)
30.3% (66)
+16.0%
On even strength, Kolesar has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gregor shoots left. Kolesar is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (107).
Kolesar shoots right. Gregor is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (20).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Gregor
Home
41.2% (51)
30.3% (33)
Away
48.8% (84)
27.8% (36)
By Period
Kolesar
Gregor
P1
50.0%
11.1%
P2
46.9%
27.3%
P3
38.9%
52.9%
Final 5 min
39.1%
37.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
45.9%
Gregor
48.0%▲
36.0%
29.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 3 | 04:10 | Neutral | Noah Gregor |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Noah Gregor |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 17:12 | Offensive | Noah Gregor |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 09:19 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Keegan Kolesar |