Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 49.0%). Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Aucoin wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aucoin 48.7% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aucoin 52.5%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 55.4%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 54.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Aucoin
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Aucoin
Bjugstad
Last 7: Aucoin 3-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aucoin
1
0
Aucoin
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
4
Aucoin
Bjugstad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aucoin
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (448)
48.6% (6,566)
-0.8%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
55.2% (828)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (4)
44.1% (612)
+30.9%
On penalty kill, Aucoin has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Aucoin is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Aucoin shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,695).
Home / Away
Aucoin
Bjugstad
Home
52.6% (215)
50.0% (3,981)
Away
45.1% (268)
48.0% (4,025)
By Period
Aucoin
Bjugstad
P1
45.8%
49.1%
P2
49.2%
49.0%
P3
51.9%
48.4%
OT
0.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aucoin
50.0%▲
44.5%
48.4%
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Keith Aucoin |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 03:19 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Keith Aucoin |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Keith Aucoin |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |