Scouting Report
Keith Aucoin holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Aucoin wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aucoin 48.9% vs Bjugstad 44.4% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 62.0%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 53.5%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 56.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Aucoin
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Aucoin
Bjugstad
Last 7: Aucoin 3-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aucoin
1
0
Aucoin
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
4
Aucoin
Bjugstad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aucoin
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (320)
37.8% (119)
+10.0%
Power Play
59.1% (22)
60.0% (10)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
66.7% (3)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Aucoin is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (132).
Aucoin shoots left. Bjugstad is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (93).
Home / Away
Aucoin
Bjugstad
Home
52.6% (154)
40.7% (59)
Away
45.3% (190)
39.7% (73)
By Period
Aucoin
Bjugstad
P1
42.5%
44.7%
P2
52.9%
38.1%
P3
52.1%
37.2%
Final 5 min
50.7%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aucoin
50.0%▲
44.5%
48.5%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Keith Aucoin |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 03:19 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Keith Aucoin |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Keith Aucoin |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |