Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Hayes 43.8% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 82.5%
Defensive zone
Hayes 62.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 78.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 78.5%
21.5%
78.5%
Lowry
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lowry
Hayes
Last 5: Lowry 1-4 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
4
Lowry
Hayes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
42.7% (478)
+13.1%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
42.9% (98)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
45.2% (31)
-2.9%
On even strength, Lowry has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lowry is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Lowry shoots left. Hayes is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (388).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hayes
Home
53.4% (515)
43.5% (232)
Away
52.6% (549)
42.4% (375)
By Period
Lowry
Hayes
P1
54.2%
40.1%
P2
54.4%
44.8%
P3
50.8%
42.4%
OT
37.5%
80.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:09 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |