Scouting Report
Jori Lehtera holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lehtera wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lehtera 54.2% vs Hayes 50.5% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lehtera 50.1%
Defensive zone
Hayes 81.5%
Neutral zone
Hayes 59.7%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Lehtera
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Lehtera
Hayes
Last 6: Lehtera 2-4 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lehtera
1
0
Lehtera
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Lehtera
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Lehtera
Hayes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lehtera
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (142)
50.4% (850)
+7.3%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
56.4% (39)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
50.2% (223)
-16.9%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lehtera is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (106).
Lehtera shoots left. Hayes is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Lehtera
Hayes
Home
61.1% (90)
50.0% (586)
Away
50.8% (59)
51.1% (526)
By Period
Lehtera
Hayes
P1
62.2%
52.3%
P2
47.5%
52.3%
P3
64.4%
47.3%
Final 5 min
64.3%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lehtera
42.0%▼
56.5%
57.0%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 05:32 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 05:24 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 1 | 09:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 18, 2018 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |