Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Kesler 55.9% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 24-18 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 70.1%
Defensive zone
Hayes 83.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 84.2%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Hayes
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
24
(42 meetings)
18
24
Hayes
Kesler
Last 10: Hayes 3-7 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
8
5
Hayes
Kesler
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
10
Hayes
Kesler
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
7
9
Hayes
Kesler
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
56.4% (8,095)
-8.9%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
60.7% (1,437)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
50.5% (1,908)
-5.2%
On power play, Kesler has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Hayes
Kesler
Home
48.1% (3,982)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Hayes
Kesler
P1
47.5%
56.5%
P2
47.6%
55.9%
P3
47.9%
56.1%
OT
54.1%
46.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 17:25 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 15:14 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 13:26 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 09:52 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 02:52 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 12:47 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 12:42 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 15:18 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 12:31 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 08:20 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 04:03 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 00:45 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |