Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthias on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.8% vs Matthias 46.6% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthias 52.0%
Defensive zone
Matthias 54.3%
Neutral zone
Matthias 53.8%
Result
Shawn Matthias favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Hayes
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hayes
Matthias
Last 5: Hayes 2-3 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Matthias
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthias
1
3
Hayes
Matthias
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (6,698)
46.4% (1,716)
+1.2%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
56.3% (103)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (696)
41.7% (175)
+3.7%
On power play, Matthias has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Hayes is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,126).
Hayes shoots left. Matthias is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,275).
Home / Away
Hayes
Matthias
Home
48.1% (3,982)
46.9% (933)
Away
47.4% (4,114)
45.9% (1,069)
By Period
Hayes
Matthias
P1
47.5%
47.8%
P2
47.7%
49.4%
P3
47.9%
41.6%
OT
54.1%
45.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
47.7%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 01:43 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 12:07 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 11:39 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |