Scouting Report
Kyle Brodziak holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Brodziak 51.8% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.5%
Defensive zone
Brodziak 83.6%
Neutral zone
Brodziak 54.7%
Result
Kyle Brodziak favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Nelson
Brodziak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Brodziak
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Brodziak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Brodziak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Brodziak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Brodziak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Brodziak
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
53.4% (631)
-6.0%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
40.0% (15)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
46.3% (121)
-3.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brodziak shoots right. Nelson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (425).
Nelson shoots left. Brodziak is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Nelson
Brodziak
Home
51.0% (641)
53.9% (410)
Away
44.1% (605)
49.9% (357)
By Period
Nelson
Brodziak
P1
48.2%
53.2%
P2
48.1%
56.1%
P3
46.9%
46.9%
Final 5 min
44.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Brodziak
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Kyle Brodziak |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |