Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.2% vs 47.5%). Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Brodziak wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brodziak 48.4% vs Backlund 47.7% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 68.7%
Defensive zone
Brodziak 68.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Brodziak
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Brodziak
Backlund
Last 9: Brodziak 3-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
3
Brodziak
Backlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Brodziak
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brodziak
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (994)
47.2% (1,002)
+2.0%
Power Play
70.4% (27)
46.7% (150)
+23.7%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (202)
50.0% (170)
-9.4%
On power play, Brodziak has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Brodziak is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (842).
Brodziak shoots right. Backlund is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (558).
Home / Away
Brodziak
Backlund
Home
49.6% (593)
48.3% (633)
Away
47.0% (630)
46.7% (689)
By Period
Brodziak
Backlund
P1
48.2%
49.2%
P2
46.3%
48.9%
P3
51.3%
45.4%
OT
23.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.5%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brodziak
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2014 | 3 | 17:54 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2014 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2014 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Kyle Brodziak |
| Mar 3, 2014 | 2 | 08:31 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2014 | 2 | 07:04 | Offensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |