Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Chipchura on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.6% vs Chipchura 48.8% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Chipchura 68.2%
Defensive zone
Chipchura 65.4%
Neutral zone
Chipchura 65.5%
Result
Kyle Chipchura favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Pavelski
Chipchura
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pavelski
Chipchura
Last 5: Pavelski 1-4 Chipchura
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chipchura
1
2
Pavelski
Chipchura
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chipchura
0
2
Pavelski
Chipchura
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Chipchura
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (480)
48.6% (255)
+1.8%
Power Play
51.5% (97)
50.0% (4)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
60.2% (83)
0.0% (2)
+60.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +60.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chipchura shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (490).
Pavelski shoots right. Chipchura is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (60).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Chipchura
Home
53.1% (311)
49.1% (163)
Away
50.7% (349)
46.9% (98)
By Period
Pavelski
Chipchura
P1
55.4%
48.2%
P2
49.6%
52.2%
P3
51.7%
42.9%
OT
36.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Chipchura
56.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2013 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 24, 2013 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 15, 2013 | 3 | 19:02 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 15, 2013 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 15, 2013 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |