Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Wellwood on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wellwood wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wellwood 52.3% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wellwood 85.5%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 95.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 68.8%
Result
Kyle Wellwood favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Wellwood
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Wellwood
Gaustad
Last 5: Wellwood 3-2 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wellwood
3
0
Wellwood
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
2
Wellwood
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wellwood
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (369)
58.2% (4,334)
-7.5%
Power Play
61.4% (88)
65.4% (188)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
54.8% (1,290)
-4.8%
On even strength, Gaustad has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Wellwood is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Wellwood shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Wellwood
Gaustad
Home
54.7% (243)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
50.7% (217)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Wellwood
Gaustad
P1
46.2%
58.2%
P2
59.6%
56.4%
P3
51.7%
58.3%
OT
60.0%
66.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wellwood
54.0%▼
58.0%
52.8%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 08:35 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 15:45 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 12:52 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |